Mls · resolved market
Will Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f69d623b0992a4242dfbcdf633a365f53661227841e4a4f890b5448e36fcdbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,596
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 21c | 4,010$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.01 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 1,967$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 77c | 1,688$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.82 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 79c | 1,361$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.81 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 21c | 1,037$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.94 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 71c | 844.51$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.91 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 70c | 792.49$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.3 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 21c | 710.5$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 22c | 659$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.31 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bb…1759backed Yes | 18c | 557.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 532$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.44 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 69c | 400$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.71 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 78c | 359$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 21c | 317.56$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 274.99$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 24c | 253.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 20c | 186.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 69c | 125$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.75 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…78febacked Yes | 23c | 104.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 22c | 94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 23c | 87.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 21c | 86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 79.49$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 79c | 62.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 32c | 56.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed Yes | 24c | 48.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed No | 79c | 44.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting Kansas City vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw?this page
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-04-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.