Tennis · resolved market
Madrid Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Julia Grabher
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f7902444bfb629f0bfdcec188b8324347089a99eb3c5a28e4ecf4794b1a4662
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Leylah Fernandezof Leylah Fernandez, Julia Grabher
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $256,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $321,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $256,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Julia Grabher | 11c | 28,582$3,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,284.8 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Julia Grabher | 14c | 21,928$3,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,168.38 | 278 | 46%128 W · 150 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d4…8b32backed Julia Grabher | 0c | 13,994$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.18 | 1,206 | 8%96 W · 1,110 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Julia Grabher | 10c | 5,145$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.51 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…5088backed Julia Grabher | 8c | 4,100$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.79 | 661 | 39.3%260 W · 401 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Julia Grabher | 10c | 4,014$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.61 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Julia Grabher | 15c | 3,163$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.5 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Julia Grabher | 12c | 3,096$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.19 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Julia Grabher | 14c | 2,922$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.15 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Julia Grabher | 10c | 2,844$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.54 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Julia Grabher | 14c | 2,839$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.14 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Julia Grabher | 1c | 2,820$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Julia Grabher | 9c | 2,130$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.25 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Julia Grabher | 10c | 2,062$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.23 | 853 | 48.7%415 W · 438 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Julia Grabher | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…ab69backed Julia Grabher | 18c | 1,475$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.81 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…38febacked Julia Grabher | 17c | 1,451$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.66 | 374 | 21.9%82 W · 292 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57d…75bbbacked Julia Grabher | 16c | 1,445$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Julia Grabher | 10c | 1,396$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.55 | 603 | 55.4%334 W · 269 L | +19.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Julia Grabher | 11c | 1,391$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.71 | 380 | 13.9%53 W · 327 L | -38.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Julia Grabher | 10c | 921.16$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Julia Grabher | 16c | 665.56$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.49 | 1,865 | 44.7%834 W · 1,031 L | +36.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Julia Grabher | 6c | 646.49$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Julia Grabher | 13c | 591.15$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.3 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d29…f683backed Julia Grabher | 15c | 451.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 336 | 47.3%159 W · 177 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…48e6backed Julia Grabher | 10c | 378.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Julia Grabher | 19c | 370$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 668 | 31.3%209 W · 459 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Julia Grabher | 10c | 364.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 1,174 | 51.9%609 W · 565 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Julia Grabher | 15c | 306.14$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Julia Grabher | 16c | 299.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…7a05backed Julia Grabher | 17c | 277.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Julia Grabher | 10c | 236.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 284 | 54.9%156 W · 128 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Julia Grabher | 10c | 221.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 604 | 46.7%282 W · 322 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Julia Grabher | 17c | 214.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 282 | 55%155 W · 127 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2068…d19bbacked Julia Grabher | 10c | 197.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Julia Grabher | 16c | 190.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Julia Grabher | 16c | 185.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 408 | 36.8%150 W · 258 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Julia Grabher | 15c | 183.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Julia Grabher | 13c | 179.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Julia Grabher | 10c | 164.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 568 | 27.3%155 W · 413 L | +23.1wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…112dbacked Julia Grabher | 12c | 157.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Julia Grabher | 10c | 142.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f3…d816backed Julia Grabher | 10c | 140.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Julia Grabher | 16c | 121.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 423 | 44.2%187 W · 236 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Julia Grabher | 16c | 120.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Julia Grabher | 16c | 110.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 183 | 15.8%29 W · 154 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Julia Grabher | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed Julia Grabher | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 257 | 45.9%118 W · 139 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…5749backed Julia Grabher | 13c | 86.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,855 | 49.4%1,410 W · 1,445 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked Julia Grabher | 18c | 78.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 279 | 35.8%100 W · 179 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…46c8backed Julia Grabher | 19c | 75.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 228 | 21.1%48 W · 180 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Leylah Fernandez | 80c | 56.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 362 | 44.8%162 W · 200 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Leylah Fernandez | 80c | 53.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Leylah Fernandez | 80c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Leylah Fernandez | 80c | 16.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Madrid Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Julia Grabherthis page
- Set Handicap: Fernandez (-1.5) vs Grabher (+1.5)Fernandez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.