CS2 · resolved market
ESL Counter-Strike Semifinals: Eternal Fire vs MIBR
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f8becc01aacef232e1a8c1bc88fcf9813106509ca6cb0c5107886e9dba1c661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- EFof EF, MIBR
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed MIBR | 15c | 4,964$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.27 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked MIBR | 28c | 2,109$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.09 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0034…2f36backed EF | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked MIBR | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed MIBR | 19c | 721.21$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…0312backed MIBR | 19c | 520.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed MIBR | 32c | 505$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.6 | 109 | 33%36 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed EF | 68c | 450$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed MIBR | 30c | 444$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed EF | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked MIBR | 5c | 290$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffb…7fb6backed MIBR | 26c | 203.7$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x619b…e4bcbacked MIBR | 18c | 188.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed MIBR | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed MIBR | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked EF | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed EF | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed MIBR | 29c | 64.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked EF | 70c | 53.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed MIBR | 30c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…419bbacked EF | 68c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb9…1a6fbacked EF | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…3385backed EF | 71c | 17.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed EF | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.