Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fabda92d0f87eaf8a26c1ceebe9207913ae5d536f6ae36eafe93178ef4b34ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 811.86$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.18 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 27c | 307.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.13 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 225.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 216.82$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 50c | 201.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 159.47$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 29c | 151$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 146.58$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 112.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 111.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 31c | 97.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 20c | 95.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 94.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 87.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 22c | 69.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.29 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 19c | 69.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 74c | 69.64$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 33c | 69.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 30c | 68.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 66.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 35c | 60.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed Yes | 43c | 58.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 78c | 57.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 55.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 49c | 52.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 31c | 45.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 42.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 75c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 40.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked No | 30c | 36.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 49c | 36.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 33.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 37c | 32.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 65c | 28.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 26.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 60c | 25.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 55c | 23.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…3a2abacked No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…8a39backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…40bdbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 19.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…f3e0backed Yes | 63c | 16.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 15.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.