Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0df0cb30264deaeb6e2ba35ffa3fbd81233863a50ab873eb25b2324eca42ab88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf587…f3e0backed Yes | 48c | 646.8$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.31 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 509.51$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.53 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 497.56$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 30c | 476.08$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.28 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 310$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 294.4$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.19 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 262$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 45c | 257.67$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.75 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 251$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.64 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 214.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 67c | 195.95$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.87 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 30c | 193.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 178.2$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 35c | 147.1$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.1 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 135.45$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.69 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 132.33$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 118.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 115$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…7508backed Yes | 9c | 109$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 99.88$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 38c | 90.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 31c | 80.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x313e…8498backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 36c | 64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe45…f9a7backed Yes | 42c | 62.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 59.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 32c | 59.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 19c | 54.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.67 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 34c | 54.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 28c | 53.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 45.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 30c | 38.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 33.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…6060backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 35c | 29.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 36c | 29.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 67c | 29.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed No | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadda…684cbacked No | 80c | 24.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 85 | 80%68 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 67c | 24.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 68c | 22.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 69c | 22.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 71c | 22.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 65c | 20.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…6521backed Yes | 70c | 18.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…5951backed No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 71c | 16.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 68c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a1…5ef3backed Yes | 77c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C or below on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 45°C or higher on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.