NBA · resolved market
Over 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fbb6e0c8fafd06d3759e1291ad9e6651709e0390358d5533fd5b382d7e016ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 52c | 2,485$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.61 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Over | 48c | 1,048$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.88 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 2c | 977$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 50c | 877.48$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.83 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Over | 47c | 810.65$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.58 | 1,277 | 2.3%29 W · 1,248 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -84%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Over | 7c | 635$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.55 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Under | 55c | 538.51$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.18 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Over | 46c | 435.95$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.42 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Under | 45c | 312.42$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.59 | 282 | 41.1%116 W · 166 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Under | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 129 | 55%71 W · 58 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Over | 48c | 203.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.66 | 248 | 46.4%115 W · 133 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Over | 57c | 129.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…0f62backed Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 364 | 34.9%127 W · 237 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec32…e87fbacked Under | 47c | 97.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3def…08b4backed Over | 58c | 60.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Over | 47c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xea27…8a0bbacked Over | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Over | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Under | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ab…e817backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Over | 52c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Over 229.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. PacersCavaliers won
- Over 224.5Over won
- Over 227.5Over won
- Over 228.5Over won
- Over 230.5Under won
- Over 231.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pacers (-0.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.