NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pacers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28896c6658212c56ece9ae3873207ac041a5a2fa995939233da2ffd0bc473f7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Pacers, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,406
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,406 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pacers | 55c | 14,265$7,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,836.39 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f8…b76fbacked Pacers | 27c | 7,905$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.31 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Cavaliers | 47c | 7,635$3,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,029.25 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cavaliers | 45c | 4,524$2,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475.29 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Cavaliers | 44c | 2,206$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,242.94 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Pacers | 52c | 1,950$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Pacers | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pacers | 2c | 842.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Pacers | 29c | 180.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed Cavaliers | 49c | 178.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Pacers | 56c | 142$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +8.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pacers | 28c | 134$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd7…cb0bbacked Pacers | 29c | 134$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Pacers | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Pacers | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked Cavaliers | 50c | 33.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…b635backed Cavaliers | 46c | 32.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Cavaliers | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pacers | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)this page
- Cavaliers vs. PacersCavaliers won
- Over 224.5Over won
- Over 227.5Over won
- Over 228.5Over won
- Over 229.5Over won
- Over 230.5Under won
- Over 231.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Pacers (-0.5)Cavaliers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.