Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Williams (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fbbec3bbf8800fdcd06e13398d5325b323b977de11b8f8143d39965b8143a73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Potapovaof Potapova, Williams
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Potapova | 68c | 2,873$1,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.37 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04e6…3914backed Potapova | 67c | 2,264$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.23 | 346 | 55.2%191 W · 155 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Williams | 32c | 1,844$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.16 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…d98abacked Potapova | 68c | 1,771$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.38 | 249 | 62.2%155 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a6…a2ebbacked Potapova | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Williams | 35c | 1,234$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.75 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Williams | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed Williams | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Williams | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Williams | 32c | 849.38$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.8 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Williams | 33c | 836.29$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.98 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd20b…3a20backed Potapova | 66c | 600.97$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.36 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Williams | 34c | 600$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.47 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca4…348fbacked Potapova | 67c | 585.51$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.22 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Williams | 35c | 566.43$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Williams | 35c | 346$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Williams | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Williams | 33c | 279.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.11 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Potapova | 65c | 271.27$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.62 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Williams | 37c | 184.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Potapova | 57c | 130$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba3…1aafbacked Williams | 38c | 110.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Williams | 34c | 98.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Potapova | 58c | 96.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 2,418 | 51.7%1,249 W · 1,169 L | +10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…e629backed Potapova | 66c | 92.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…31b8backed Williams | 36c | 70.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Potapova | 66c | 45.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 192 | 56.8%109 W · 83 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Potapova | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 245 | 46.5%114 W · 131 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe668…7a6bbacked Potapova | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Potapova | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Potapova | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Potapova | 65c | 22.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Potapova | 66c | 19.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Potapova | 67c | 16.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Williams (+1.5)this page
- Anastasia Potapova vs. Venus Williams: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Mubadala Citi DC Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Venus WilliamsAnastasia Potapova won
- Set Handicap: Williams (-1.5) vs Potapova (+1.5)Potapova won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.