Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fdf057f86387c233fef07c24d953a7e88e0c814b1a67d681de0edbc4755da95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,055$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,031$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 773.3$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 4c | 738.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 430.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 65c | 366.7$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.34 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 248.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 26c | 236.27$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 13c | 214.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 71c | 207.83$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 72c | 197.85$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 12c | 184.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked No | 75c | 174$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab5…f7d8backed Yes | 10c | 131.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f8…750bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b884backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a9…6747backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…92b6backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…6804backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…cb93backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf821…f546backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…0b31backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8af…603bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…36a8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42d1…8769backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…120ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b7…4834backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 38cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c87…d952backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…eed5backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…f052backed No | 76c | 99.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 65c | 96.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 21c | 69.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 24c | 64.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 65c | 52.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 47.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 70c | 45.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 65c | 45.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 69c | 36.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 64c | 35.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 65c | 33.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked No | 73c | 29.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 59c | 25.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.