Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x266ccd06620174c20d7c290a03c9d540cc92d961cb56b09fbd9b4167fd1301c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 34c | 1,017$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.36 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed Yes | 11c | 411.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 70c | 196.79$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 146.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 141.67$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 77c | 128.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 73c | 127.95$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 19c | 108.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 29c | 106.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…64f4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 93.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 67c | 92.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 81.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 68.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 66.56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 63.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 66c | 63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 19c | 60.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 55.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 26c | 54.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 69c | 52.59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 51.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd52…be22backed No | 67c | 46.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 31c | 42.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 42.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…3902backed No | 67c | 42.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +99%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f17…54b3backed Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 34c | 35.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 69c | 32.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 67c | 31.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 72c | 30.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 70c | 26.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked No | 74c | 21.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 73c | 21.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 69c | 19.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe314…3c94backed No | 79c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 70c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.