Serie A · resolved market
AS Roma vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fe65a3eb4527906002abd33a57a9a415ee90d37e16b985331a9cbff2cefffc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,064
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,717
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,064 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 24,228$2,653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,652.95 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 2,461$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.08 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…b408backed Under | 69c | 1,651$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 33c | 1,100$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363 | 109 | 40.4%44 W · 65 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 30c | 873.32$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 260 | 40%104 W · 156 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Over | 10c | 760.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 10c | 741.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.46 | 168 | 38.1%64 W · 104 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Under | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…811bbacked Over | 3c | 660$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa632…4c96backed Over | 29c | 450$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Under | 68c | 367.65$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.65 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Under | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 23c | 290.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 27c | 287.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 23c | 262$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 26c | 259.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 20c | 248.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…5857backed Over | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 14c | 204.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 69c | 180$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 90 | 45.6%41 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 23c | 179.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 28c | 178$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 45 | 75.6%34 W · 11 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 16c | 177.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa0…be2dbacked Under | 73c | 152.09$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…84cabacked Over | 13c | 142.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 29c | 136.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 17c | 132.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 23c | 120$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Over | 8c | 119.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 23c | 99.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 114 | 60.5%69 W · 45 L | +14.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Over | 15c | 79.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 13c | 79.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 28c | 74.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 71c | 70.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Under | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…3479backed Under | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 71c | 42.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Under | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AS Roma vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5this page
- AS Roma vs. US Cremonese: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AS Roma vs. US Cremonese: O/U 1.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. US Cremonese: O/U 2.5Over won
- AS Roma vs. US Cremonese: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.