Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x201d73e88416424f94c3853121514830f16c6fd23b0ca096afa2f615c9c754dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,317 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 0c | 5,033$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e50…7a7fbacked No | 1c | 2,024$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,385$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,329.64 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 911.9$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 17c | 505.64$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.67 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 10c | 468.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.82 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 401.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked Yes | 76c | 389.63$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.63 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…5062backed Yes | 10c | 376$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 305.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.11 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 51c | 260.31$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 5c | 249.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.1 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 17c | 214.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.94 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 12c | 144.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.09 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 10c | 138.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…7339backed Yes | 26c | 108.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +290.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 85.29$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 62c | 84.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 63.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked No | 75c | 55.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 41.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7bb5backed Yes | 51c | 35.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.