Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cdd06de82615cd43df1b77ebdbd7d88d3885604908c5279212ab1720bea005f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,737 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 22c | 417.71$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 73c | 397.98$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.09 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 7c | 372.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 5c | 302.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 29c | 300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 13c | 247.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 28c | 212.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 7c | 210.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…2d9abacked Yes | 23c | 205.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 15c | 197.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 19c | 179.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 167$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a5…5737backed Yes | 25c | 149.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 14c | 140.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked Yes | 16c | 139.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 74c | 129.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 119.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 74c | 113.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 21c | 108.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed Yes | 21c | 103.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 100.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ef…8b9cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 93.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 15c | 92.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 90.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 86.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 86.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 25c | 73.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 73c | 68.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 31c | 68.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…872abacked Yes | 27c | 62.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 61.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 61.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x974b…b29bbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 29c | 46.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 80c | 44.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 29c | 37.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6489…b1aebacked No | 77c | 30.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 23.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 22.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 74c | 18.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 77c | 13.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.