Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8675593ddf19797716527eb7a19e06789cc94d8938a0fcaaa062afe37e378e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,419 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0bbf…9047backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 2c | 1,065$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 48c | 611.9$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.68 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 48c | 604.82$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.07 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 78c | 584.18$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.11 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 44c | 417.66$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.81 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 37c | 406.15$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 400$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 386.36$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 51c | 382.84$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.09 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 317$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 57c | 248.91$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.95 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed No | 72c | 237.81$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 79c | 229.8$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 54c | 220.64$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.84 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 31c | 209.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.51 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 57c | 199.96$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 46c | 197$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 52c | 191.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 50c | 168$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.3 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 49c | 153.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed No | 49c | 119.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 117.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 44c | 110.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.39 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 17c | 109.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 106.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc3…f918backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cc…2d9abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 19c | 99.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 72c | 97.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 40c | 92.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 59c | 92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked Yes | 34c | 89.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 32c | 85.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 53c | 83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e3…5062backed No | 56c | 82.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 50c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 75c | 72.19$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 70.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 46c | 68.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 66.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 54c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…9345backed Yes | 18c | 61.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 49c | 61.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 51c | 58.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 54c | 56.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 55c | 56.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 21c | 55.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 46c | 54.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 73c | 54.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 69c | 54.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fee…1502backed No | 74c | 54.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…1103backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 50c | 47.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 47.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 45.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 44c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…c6a2backed No | 57c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed No | 46c | 43.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 77c | 43.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 65c | 42.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…9c0ebacked Yes | 54c | 38.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 54c | 37.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 35c | 37.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed Yes | 51c | 34.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…59b0backed No | 54c | 34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 48c | 31.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…2a45backed Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcecb…db2fbacked No | 54c | 30.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd882…0458backed Yes | 49c | 30.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 50c | 30.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 66c | 25.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed Yes | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…27e4backed Yes | 46c | 23.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 54c | 20.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…e6d2backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 19.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.