Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x614e5ead76ebd78e417f7e6880ee440d1d3c8900eb1b4a406c0bdfb3f3393d05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,375 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 74c | 1,882$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.03 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 5c | 1,182$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 964.97$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 20c | 562.29$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.96 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 35c | 532.45$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.83 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 481.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 65c | 436.4$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.42 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 399.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 69c | 379.49$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.96 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 62c | 378.72$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.61 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 370.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2079…ca17backed Yes | 16c | 337.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 292.2$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.73 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 25c | 249.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.34 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 19c | 232.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 223.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.93 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 11c | 215.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 12c | 185.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.95 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 16c | 178.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.16 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 24c | 167.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 161.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 66c | 161$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.85 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 38c | 156.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 21c | 152.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 27c | 151.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 27c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 40c | 129.82$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed No | 22c | 120.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…8bf8backed Yes | 21c | 119.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 17c | 113$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 64c | 112.61$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 107.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 35c | 105.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 13c | 98.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…f630backed No | 25c | 96.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 12c | 94.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 94.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 92.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 57c | 92.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 23c | 91.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 80.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeddc…f64ebacked Yes | 66c | 72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked No | 76c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea39…5b94backed No | 30c | 66.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked No | 15c | 65.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 19c | 63.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 66c | 58.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 75c | 52.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb41b…3664backed Yes | 20c | 51.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 39cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 51.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…e7efbacked No | 62c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 74c | 49.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 48.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 28c | 44.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 78c | 44.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce6…77d1backed No | 24c | 42.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 55c | 34.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 68c | 32.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 77c | 32.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 32.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 39c | 31.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…9c0ebacked No | 79c | 25.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 43c | 24.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 47c | 24.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53a…2438backed Yes | 73c | 20.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0401…69debacked Yes | 76c | 19.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 16.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 72c | 15.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 48°F or higher on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.