TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,375 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3877…fbf1backed Yes74c1,882$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,401.033622.2%8 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes5c1,182$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9149547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes67c964.97$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.356,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x331b…193fbacked No20c562.29$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.9690040.7%366 W · 534 L+112.3wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+63.8%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes35c532.45$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.8321436%77 W · 137 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes18c481.89$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.498,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No65c436.4$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.4232157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes10c399.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes69c379.49$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.964,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x672f…13ccbacked Yes62c378.72$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.6133058.8%194 W · 136 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c370.86$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2079…ca17backed Yes16c337.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549626%25 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No75c292.2$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.7391967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No25c249.12$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.3434618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No19c232.63$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.21,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No20c223.74$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.9359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No11c215.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe228…1e29backed No12c185.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.957530.7%23 W · 52 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No16c178.49$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.1646626%121 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes24c167.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.271,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c161.54$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.7312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes66c161$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8535843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf845…7c31backed No38c156.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.828957.3%51 W · 38 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed Yes21c152.94$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0452245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes27c151.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.361729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x025b…1793backed Yes27c150$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2512632.5%41 W · 85 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes40c129.82$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.557,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xb532…8577backed No22c120.49$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6519133.5%64 W · 127 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9837…8bf8backed Yes21c119.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.852254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes17c113$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.219434%32 W · 62 L-10.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes64c112.61$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1111126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c107.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.957,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ced…7ce8backed No35c105.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6813748.2%66 W · 71 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2515626.3%41 W · 115 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6432444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed No13c98.92$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.1434651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ab…f630backed No25c96.44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.013525.7%9 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes12c94.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.425029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes51c94.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes22c92.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.983,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes57c92.2$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5299961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed Yes23c91.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.828665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes21c80.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.351,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeddc…f64ebacked Yes66c72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.521338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked No76c69$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6510956%61 W · 48 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea39…5b94backed No30c66.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.91172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+54.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4279…9f1bbacked No15c65.7$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.5810043%43 W · 57 L+9.0wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66a1…3de8backed Yes19c63.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9668521.5%147 W · 538 L+12.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes73c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No66c58.62$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.91,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x720a…0a49backed No75c52.5$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2811878.8%93 W · 25 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb41b…3664backed Yes20c51.29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick39cpaid+74.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No79c51.24$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7149…e7efbacked No62c51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.592356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No74c49.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.911,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes23c48.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.861,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x11c5…70e3backed No28c44.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.019162.6%57 W · 34 L+10.5wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+32.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed No78c44.09$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8938840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes25c44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.881,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcce6…77d1backed No24c42.94$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.779139.6%36 W · 55 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e08…59d2backed Yes70c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285644.6%25 W · 31 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes28c35.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.082,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502c…7c03backed Yes32c35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21855.6%10 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes55c34.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8731442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes68c32.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1792028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No77c32.63$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4527771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No78c32.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.11,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No39c31.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.41,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes72c31$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.37631.6%24 W · 52 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick40cpaid+0.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0554966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3cb…9c0ebacked No79c25.21$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No75c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2510371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No43c24.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.982,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked Yes47c24.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.431170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No74c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7233567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd53a…2438backed Yes73c20.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22be…ba43backed No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42982.8%24 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.15per pick68cpaid+24.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ef…f2b4backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.83764.9%24 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0401…69debacked Yes76c19.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.952334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaaa…f641backed No75c16.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.110060%60 W · 40 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a49…8d1fbacked No72c15.61$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.38248.8%40 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.331567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.