World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20229aac4261bec9fa74c12a244b81f44178575b5849e5411b4860e0348b54e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,212 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46e7…f51ebacked No | 1c | 3,059$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed No | 3c | 2,541$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed No | 2c | 1,459$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 2c | 1,191$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 4c | 1,174$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 6c | 1,073$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 3c | 1,027$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 2c | 1,017$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…de2fbacked No | 3c | 919.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21f…73ffbacked No | 2c | 833$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b5…596dbacked No | 3c | 720$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 4c | 635$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 3c | 624.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 582.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked No | 6c | 408.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ec…0ec4backed No | 3c | 398.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…6cfbbacked No | 3c | 304.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…e6c0backed No | 5c | 276.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…8ea6backed No | 5c | 273.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed No | 8c | 131.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 30c | 64.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 30c | 47.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9d…ea34backed Yes | 67c | 26.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5add…9e47backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the March meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the March meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.