World Politics · resolved market
Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c7f7a1b941b251186e480c9c05a9ceba668dbeb2b314818183f3a4c37848cab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39c3…0c7ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,407$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f24…5d90backed Yes | 2c | 4,141$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec80…2cd7backed Yes | 3c | 3,511$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef3…ec32backed Yes | 2c | 2,348$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83db…d78fbacked Yes | 19c | 2,232$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +527.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…a8ddbacked Yes | 3c | 1,856$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,694$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 70 | 17.1%12 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 3c | 1,405$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…8ce3backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d0…2cb8backed Yes | 2c | 999.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b2…0d0abacked Yes | 2c | 970.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 1c | 883.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 3c | 679$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae9…0710backed Yes | 2c | 678.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 2c | 635.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 2c | 552.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…ecc4backed Yes | 2c | 513.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…3743backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 464.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0e…a81abacked Yes | 5c | 462.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8a…de2fbacked Yes | 3c | 441.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9f…c9c6backed Yes | 3c | 415.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 69c | 358$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.95 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…1559backed Yes | 6c | 355.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec7…4c09backed Yes | 5c | 352.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 69.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the March meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Canada announce a 50+ bps decrease at the March meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce an increase at the March meeting?No won
- Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.