Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2046f759c86fec3b44b1b3f678d1084092d37cedaa2d34663dfc3e41f081fdb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,413
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55ad…b3e4backed Yes | 35c | 2,790$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1f…b686backed No | 65c | 1,430$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b0…5fadbacked No | 65c | 1,360$884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…6748backed No | 63c | 703.39$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.58 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 40c | 573.96$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.36 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 8c | 404.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 66c | 354.55$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.11 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 353.35$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.32 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 60c | 347.71$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.48 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…5ce7backed No | 69c | 339.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.79 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 5c | 317.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 73c | 299.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 70c | 285.23$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.11 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 35c | 276.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.89 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 26c | 222.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.46 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 18c | 222.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9727…8248backed Yes | 50c | 218.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 203.96$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 52c | 203.14$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.15 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 70c | 195.37$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.76 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…e889backed Yes | 25c | 186.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.48 | 165 | 29.1%48 W · 117 L | +12.9wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 10c | 183.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.78 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 66c | 171.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.32 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 57c | 169.33$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.27 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 10c | 150.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 35c | 138.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.75 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 61c | 135.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.66 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86aa…eb33backed No | 72c | 134.62$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 34c | 133.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.33 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 33c | 129.18$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.28 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 72c | 110.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 30c | 101.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes | 34c | 99.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 94.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 29c | 91.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed No | 64c | 84.81$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.27 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 83.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 24c | 81.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.03 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 30c | 80.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 71.4$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 34c | 66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 71c | 65.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 28c | 64.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 32c | 62.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 46c | 62.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 38c | 61.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 35c | 52.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 74c | 51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b52…6d8cbacked No | 26c | 49.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 30c | 48.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…1705backed No | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 73c | 45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 32c | 44.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 29c | 44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…d055backed Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 50c | 40.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa043…09d1backed Yes | 41c | 37.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 36.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 65c | 32.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 65c | 30.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked Yes | 43c | 27.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 26.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 25.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 76c | 19.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…9311backed No | 66c | 17.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 71c | 15.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.