Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x845354271f48339fb47aece44bf176f4fefda8790ac8771f4dc7fea2c9eaa5a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,706
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,706 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 597.99$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.54 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 47c | 475.74$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.52 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 420.5$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.74 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 43c | 416.54$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.21 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 305.48$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 47c | 266.89$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.3 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 58c | 225$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 211.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 41c | 201.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 58c | 195.19$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.83 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 185.4$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 182$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 62c | 177.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 22c | 171.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 44c | 169.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e9…c72abacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 143.86$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 39c | 134.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 130$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2938…cce8backed Yes | 20c | 126.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 31c | 126.19$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 27c | 124.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…4861backed No | 70c | 122.04$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 32c | 112.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeedf…71e6backed Yes | 39c | 110.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 34c | 104.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 46c | 102.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…f453backed Yes | 49c | 101.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 101.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 31c | 96.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 96.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 71c | 95.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 30c | 91.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 87.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 71c | 85$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…6748backed No | 59c | 84.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 73c | 82.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 36c | 73.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 72.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 62c | 64.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 63.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 32c | 63.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 41c | 60.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 60c | 58.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 66c | 54.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 54c | 53.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff9…d990backed Yes | 30c | 50.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 30c | 49.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 40c | 49.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 59c | 49.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 32c | 46.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 74c | 46.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 50c | 42.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 42c | 41.53$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 41.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 48c | 38.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 63c | 38.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 31c | 38.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 57c | 37.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 48c | 36.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 49c | 30.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…4092backed Yes | 39c | 30.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 34c | 30.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…8208backed Yes | 38c | 29.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 72c | 29.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 42c | 28.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 40c | 28.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 36c | 28.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 55c | 28.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 71c | 27.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 43c | 25.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 45c | 22.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3e…bd35backed No | 66c | 22.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81a2…5cdabacked No | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d381backed No | 66c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a97…0dc8backed No | 70c | 15.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 70c | 15.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on March 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.