Fifa International · resolved market
Will Israel win on 2025-09-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x205ad48baf4fb143034cb596f11da21c5b7a099ac9da7ecf41dea6eadf88fc7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 11c | 2,812$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.28 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…85a4backed Yes | 11c | 2,383$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked Yes | 13c | 1,865$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.48 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…e18ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,197$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…e01dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,131$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 5c | 1,068$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 11c | 999.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 274 | 34.3%94 W · 180 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 17c | 953.83$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.91 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Yes | 12c | 896.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…f425backed Yes | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 16c | 696.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Yes | 12c | 671.77$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c96…abc5backed Yes | 12c | 666.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 16c | 636.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 13c | 622.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 27c | 429$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 278 | 11.9%33 W · 245 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 103 | 66%68 W · 35 L | +12.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x843b…2673backed Yes | 12c | 370$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 21c | 350.81$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.1 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed No | 76c | 299.64$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.97 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…8f04backed Yes | 10c | 218$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7652…1aa8backed Yes | 5c | 199.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 41c | 194$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed Yes | 46c | 173$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 17c | 165.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 88 | 55.7%49 W · 39 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 156.01$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.46 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 52c | 131.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…998ebacked Yes | 10c | 125.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…955dbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 12c | 119.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 12c | 113$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fc…c28abacked Yes | 13c | 107.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 11c | 92.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…4d7abacked Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1324…3931backed Yes | 52c | 61.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…0a3ebacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked No | 40c | 49.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…3a1bbacked No | 66c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 227 | 49.3%112 W · 115 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel win on 2025-09-08?this page
- Will Israel vs. Italy end in a draw?No won
- Will Italy win on 2025-09-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.