Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x205b0b1ce7c9cd642e74c9067017d330feb4fbbd0ed2bf82eb01c3f8e981d314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked Yes | 78c | 755.03$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.24 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 26c | 550.06$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 509.89$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 55c | 334.87$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.38 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 55c | 310.35$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.45 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 15c | 299.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 285.33$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.98 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 5c | 259.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 70c | 177.69$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 171.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 75c | 147.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 141$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 11c | 134.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 10c | 131.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.89 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 26c | 125.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 42c | 121.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 116.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked No | 32c | 116.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 115.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 112$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 13c | 111.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 42c | 110.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 109.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.88 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 15c | 103.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 102.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 35c | 100.15$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d5…8863backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 13cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 86.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 13c | 82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 32c | 79.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 70c | 75.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 29c | 74.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 69c | 72.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 71c | 71.25$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 73c | 71.15$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 24c | 66.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 66c | 62.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 61.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 29c | 58.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 23c | 58.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 58c | 53.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 58c | 51.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 51.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…76f0backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 48.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 30c | 44.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…9862backed Yes | 28c | 42.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 41.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 33c | 37.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 29c | 34.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 57c | 34.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 52c | 32.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 31.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 36c | 28.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2d65…0d96backed Yes | 65c | 27.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 59c | 22.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.