TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,161 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd36…a832backed Yes47c2,276$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.8965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…9044backed No51c799.99$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.388920.2%18 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes33c438.66$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.194,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c372.41$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.8112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes53c334.32$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.871,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No52c310.38$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.594,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No72c309.15$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes4c299.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.313,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No58c252.66$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.441,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c232.52$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.958,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No60c229.08$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.571,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1586…cd6cbacked Yes30c207.34$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No53c200.57$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.3651762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No48c194.14$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.652,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes6c184.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.671,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No54c180$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.88,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e1…c152backed Yes8c178.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1720231.2%63 W · 139 L+22.2wins+0.11per pick20cpaid+13.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No44c146.87$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3775546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes24c141.63$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.527,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No64c139.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No64c130.81$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.645,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes37c125$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a9b…0cc4backed Yes51c118.84$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.617634.2%26 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No58c114.37$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.593,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes25c112$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.396,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No76c111$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.991,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No45c107.32$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.721,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No58c102.66$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.624,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes56c100$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.481,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3468335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes50c98.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3456543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c96.03$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.819,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No57c95$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2570741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No73c94.05$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.641,08855.5%604 W · 484 L-27.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes27c83.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes34c77.48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6365934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57d8…a490backed No71c76.03$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.052548%12 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3a…3df7backed No62c70.36$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7745253.3%241 W · 211 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No47c63.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.551,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes30c60$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.842820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No58c57.41$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.321,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes27c54.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes41c54.76$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa2ea…8ed1backed No76c50.55$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.11457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c54…02e9backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266150.8%31 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2643663.5%277 W · 159 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269848%47 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes31c44.41$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.881,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes52c43.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5277851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No57c43.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5120958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes25c42.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes27c41.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2546549.9%232 W · 233 L+11.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5466735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.612934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb349…cd79backed No65c38.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.752568%17 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes31c36.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2243848.6%213 W · 225 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No54c34.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6558152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45d…93f1backed No72c32.18$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.016738.8%26 W · 41 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes47c31.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes59c31.08$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.415,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.274,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No70c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$988650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6557…8474backed No56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.187156.3%40 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1784…7bafbacked Yes67c29.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c7a…7be5backed No51c29.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.563545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No58c29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.071,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8116…b2a8backed No68c28.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0612152.1%63 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No74c28.29$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.362,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No67c26$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.515,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No77c25.15$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.731,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Yes43c24.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6638860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7795…08dfbacked No60c24.38$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.662544%11 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes59c23.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1425344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0883360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No64c22.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.271,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No73c21.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.921,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.234853.4%186 W · 162 L-19.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-8.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4941…b03cbacked No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.813363.9%85 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.93,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No53c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.41,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a78…f457backed No73c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.371136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-43.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No60c18.24$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.331170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x61bf…9862backed No72c16.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.742321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked No77c14.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.272952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No80c12.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.61,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.