Europa Conference League · resolved market
UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2072c57e44de0a59a39e46bb8445824f0cc6c52f13ed7a3432ee883c9859e740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 1,420$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Under | 12c | 368.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 26c | 220.95$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.01 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3e…0b87backed Over | 74c | 136.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Under | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc464…5139backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 63c | 58.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa807…cc2ebacked Over | 61c | 45.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 138 | 39.1%54 W · 84 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…9c4cbacked Over | 57c | 26.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…1ccabacked Over | 74c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Over | 58c | 18.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: UMF Stjarnan (-1.5)UMF Stjarnan won
- UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: O/U 3.5Over won
- UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: O/U 4.5Under won
- UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: O/U 5.5Under won
- UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: UMF Stjarnan O/U 1.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.