Europa Conference League · resolved market
UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x130230fcc924ea93e8bb9a336f8c528fb726cf1b829e56063fbd5b4af8331f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 49c | 2,312$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.22 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 51c | 1,970$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.36 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 806.44$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.27 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 5c | 550$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 528.45$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.21 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 5c | 518$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Over | 49c | 497$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.68 | 181 | 45.9%83 W · 98 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Under | 54c | 202$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 138.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.64 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Under | 54c | 107.08$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 62c | 94.82$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 46c | 84.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 43c | 48.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 50c | 42.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…7b78backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…f72fbacked Over | 54c | 39.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 55c | 36.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 49c | 35.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 39c | 34.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 65c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54c3…ef9fbacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 44c | 27.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: UMF Stjarnan (-1.5)UMF Stjarnan won
- UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: O/U 2.5Over won
- UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: O/U 4.5Under won
- UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: O/U 5.5Under won
- UMF Stjarnan vs. Víkingur: UMF Stjarnan O/U 1.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.