Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20d0054ac5b15fae6fce8954084d9c82ce877ab3953c3e3dc08dda855f1e265b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed AVULUS | 29c | 3,059$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.45 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…ca20backed L1ga Team | 55c | 1,727$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked L1ga Team | 60c | 1,257$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.5 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 32c | 1,130$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.02 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed L1ga Team | 58c | 1,092$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.84 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f9…7d78backed AVULUS | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed AVULUS | 36c | 810$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.3 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed L1ga Team | 80c | 781.39$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.14 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked L1ga Team | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.29 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed AVULUS | 5c | 568$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed AVULUS | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked AVULUS | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed AVULUS | 30c | 321.43$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed AVULUS | 38c | 230$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…42c1backed AVULUS | 10c | 200.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed AVULUS | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed AVULUS | 20c | 150.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed AVULUS | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da1…e6dfbacked AVULUS | 35c | 96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked AVULUS | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked L1ga Team | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked L1ga Team | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked L1ga Team | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 43.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed AVULUS | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked AVULUS | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed L1ga Team | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed L1ga Team | 58c | 27.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAVULUS won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
- Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs AVULUS (+1.5)AVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.