Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9638598db029b9cf90ac9cf49797d555e50c431e1ae12a1324033bf5e69d6212
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof L1ga Team, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed AVULUS | 35c | 9,153$3,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,957.66 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed L1ga Team | 75c | 3,687$2,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,775.03 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 29c | 2,371$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.24 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked L1ga Team | 23c | 1,848$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…b10dbacked L1ga Team | 62c | 1,753$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.7 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9333…3fa5backed AVULUS | 67c | 1,662$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked L1ga Team | 71c | 1,306$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.86 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 1,300$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.73 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed L1ga Team | 4c | 1,155$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked L1ga Team | 40c | 1,056$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.3 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked L1ga Team | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed AVULUS | 54c | 883.01$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.18 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9380…a275backed L1ga Team | 76c | 799.98$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked AVULUS | 33c | 718.07$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.89 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa0…ca20backed AVULUS | 48c | 660.99$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.72 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked L1ga Team | 80c | 645.31$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked L1ga Team | 62c | 600$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked L1ga Team | 76c | 595.84$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.91 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed AVULUS | 47c | 530.47$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.71 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed AVULUS | 76c | 511.75$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.62 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked AVULUS | 36c | 483.73$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.73 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed L1ga Team | 64c | 471.93$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.95 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed AVULUS | 58c | 400$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.81 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed AVULUS | 29c | 399.66$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.68 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed L1ga Team | 44c | 397.42$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.64 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked AVULUS | 48c | 340.68$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.12 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…e1a3backed L1ga Team | 10c | 323.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed AVULUS | 40c | 323.26$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.95 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1e…d5dfbacked L1ga Team | 77c | 262.73$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd382…8885backed L1ga Team | 68c | 253.93$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed L1ga Team | 55c | 207.24$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…1737backed AVULUS | 35c | 204.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed L1ga Team | 51c | 198.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed L1ga Team | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed L1ga Team | 52c | 171.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked AVULUS | 33c | 164.93$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed L1ga Team | 61c | 164.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked L1ga Team | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 48c | 143.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.87 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…3d5dbacked L1ga Team | 72c | 142.89$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked AVULUS | 68c | 122.84$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 921 | 56.5%520 W · 401 L | +78.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…3542backed L1ga Team | 53c | 116.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…93eabacked L1ga Team | 67c | 108.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked L1ga Team | 59c | 107.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AVULUS | 56c | 105.04$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…9566backed AVULUS | 23c | 90.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +343.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AVULUS | 16c | 88.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…88d8backed L1ga Team | 60c | 81.94$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed AVULUS | 20c | 79.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed L1ga Team | 58c | 78.42$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked L1ga Team | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…2ecdbacked L1ga Team | 49c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed AVULUS | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa134…3ba2backed L1ga Team | 78c | 58.07$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…58fcbacked AVULUS | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5271…0f95backed L1ga Team | 75c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed AVULUS | 35c | 46.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5e…b7e4backed L1ga Team | 49c | 43.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ed…50efbacked L1ga Team | 50c | 43.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed L1ga Team | 52c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked L1ga Team | 44c | 41.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4339…beeebacked L1ga Team | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked L1ga Team | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e4…b4d2backed L1ga Team | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked AVULUS | 49c | 34.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed L1ga Team | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…3da7backed L1ga Team | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed AVULUS | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd921…737bbacked L1ga Team | 60c | 28.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…1e71backed L1ga Team | 41c | 24.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed L1ga Team | 55c | 23.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed L1ga Team | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3703…2795backed AVULUS | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5305…57e8backed L1ga Team | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked L1ga Team | 56c | 18.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked AVULUS | 57c | 17.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 2 WinnerAVULUS won
- Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs AVULUS (+1.5)AVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.