Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x628c6a3b17fd7ba857d48b03a7995650dcf95f43691ab1b960aa21f3942ea0f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AVULUSof L1ga Team, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f9…cf34backed L1ga Team | 65c | 15,030$9,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,759.02 | 186 | 61.8%115 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40e2…b0a7backed AVULUS | 34c | 9,864$3,308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,556.34 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked AVULUS | 46c | 8,502$3,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,602.62 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…05babacked L1ga Team | 43c | 4,659$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,004.68 | 254 | 46.1%117 W · 137 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked L1ga Team | 61c | 4,445$2,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,692.83 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked AVULUS | 39c | 2,462$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked AVULUS | 35c | 2,033$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.14 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…a5d4backed L1ga Team | 76c | 1,824$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.6 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cad…eb66backed AVULUS | 49c | 1,616$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.32 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked L1ga Team | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed AVULUS | 34c | 891$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.06 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed AVULUS | 34c | 891$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.06 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed AVULUS | 39c | 879.51$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.18 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda12…38d6backed L1ga Team | 71c | 700.75$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.71 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed AVULUS | 39c | 659.84$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.1 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed AVULUS | 34c | 611.47$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.57 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked AVULUS | 33c | 605$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.35 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed L1ga Team | 61c | 550$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked L1ga Team | 60c | 400$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked AVULUS | 50c | 297.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.04 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…c9bcbacked L1ga Team | 57c | 259.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed L1ga Team | 15c | 205.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked AVULUS | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…cbe5backed L1ga Team | 16c | 191.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked L1ga Team | 64c | 155.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed AVULUS | 39c | 136.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 340 | 63.2%215 W · 125 L | +38.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed AVULUS | 36c | 131.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked AVULUS | 60c | 130$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked L1ga Team | 14c | 102.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked AVULUS | 48c | 75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed AVULUS | 38c | 75$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked L1ga Team | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked L1ga Team | 65c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed L1ga Team | 62c | 69.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 67.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8db…0ed3backed AVULUS | 50c | 59.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b5…6d52backed L1ga Team | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 38c | 46.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed L1ga Team | 70c | 43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…4d07backed L1ga Team | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed AVULUS | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked L1ga Team | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5f…4884backed AVULUS | 37c | 28.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d1…9a82backed AVULUS | 67c | 27.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked AVULUS | 72c | 18.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAVULUS won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs AVULUS (+1.5)AVULUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.