Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20d28572f634a5ca3828715cb0af377b172fdf46519dddefd1862951275c6a95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 35c | 1,966$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.16 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 72c | 981.66$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.14 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 26c | 926.77$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.88 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Under | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 65c | 539$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.65 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Over | 75c | 451.52$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 66c | 331.91$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.85 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 67c | 314.41$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.27 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 76c | 128.9$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 33c | 120$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 143 | 49%70 W · 73 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 67c | 113.45$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…802bbacked Under | 17c | 108.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 67c | 100.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…79b1backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Under | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 34c | 92.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 31c | 80.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…d23bbacked Over | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 24c | 60.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 34c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Over | 72c | 52.24$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 67c | 50.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 68c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 29c | 45.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 44.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed Under | 30c | 44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 71c | 37.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 79c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 74c | 33.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…91b2backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: Columbus Crew O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: Columbus Crew O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati O/U 2.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Columbus Crew won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.