Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf06261815a9cff5df4dda984ec2d7e3c5849f7873fbe7df72aa2ccdc2f2ce50a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 76c | 5,821$4,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.35 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 33c | 4,633$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.74 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 25c | 4,240$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Over | 25c | 4,016$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 69c | 3,917$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.88 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 48c | 2,559$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.6 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 72c | 2,546$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.55 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 1,368$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.6 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 56c | 1,198$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.24 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 25c | 1,025$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.08 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 75c | 780.84$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.21 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…8148backed Over | 29c | 555$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.95 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x114e…dcefbacked Under | 45c | 400$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 66c | 307.06$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 25c | 275.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Over | 35c | 250.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 25c | 237.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Over | 49c | 226.81$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Under | 44c | 224.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 71c | 192.73$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 24c | 155.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 25c | 134.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 76c | 130.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…0af9backed Under | 44c | 113.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 65c | 113.29$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 72c | 111.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 30c | 111.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Under | 76c | 109.39$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 75c | 95.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…b9d1backed Under | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 24c | 87.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed Over | 57c | 87.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…46cebacked Under | 43c | 85.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 63c | 70.51$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 75c | 68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 53c | 66.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 22c | 66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Under | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b9…c40bbacked Under | 55c | 64.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f75…ce35backed Over | 38c | 58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 66c | 51.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd852…6267backed Over | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 65c | 36.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 35.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 73c | 34.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 76c | 31.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Under | 56c | 29.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Under | 54c | 23.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 49c | 21.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9545…d6f7backed Under | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 76c | 17.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 123 | 56.9%70 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Under | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 76c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: Columbus Crew O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: Columbus Crew O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati O/U 2.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 0.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Columbus Crew won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.