NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20f23c2402f3770f14dd32f0ab40828ab4416f2301ce5fa45683a99856356672
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 44c | 3,650$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Under | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 50c | 2,862$1,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.27 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 1,213$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.32 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 57c | 878.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.32 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 833.61$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.61 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 28c | 704$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.08 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…c619backed Over | 45c | 404.51$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 55c | 317$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.84 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 41c | 299$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 56c | 272.33$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.44 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 73c | 251.37$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 45c | 222.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 45c | 194$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.7 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 57c | 172.26$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.07 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 45c | 160.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +210.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 60c | 150.15$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 40c | 150.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 43c | 99.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 62c | 95$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 31c | 74.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 43c | 51.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.21 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43d6…fbedbacked Over | 67c | 49.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Under | 42c | 25.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b1…9fdebacked Over | 54c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Under | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9256backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x547d…a1b8backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…da74backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd17…ff96backed Under | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c4…0177backed Over | 54c | 23.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ca…8bdebacked Over | 54c | 23.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x390a…db34backed Under | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8606…c451backed Over | 54c | 22.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…2a36backed Over | 54c | 22.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…d36dbacked Over | 54c | 21.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…7bc7backed Over | 56c | 19.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x148a…f0c1backed Over | 54c | 19.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…96b0backed Over | 54c | 19.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…1e01backed Over | 54c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed Over | 56c | 18.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 73c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Wild won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Red Wings won
- Spread: Wild (-2.5)Red Wings won
- Wild vs. Red WingsWild won
- Wild vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Wild vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Wild vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.