NHL · resolved market
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34218d507b0d3adb7a759d017e8ca38137d6b9b79ef5404526aa8cbe6bbf9493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Wild, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Wild | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…18c6backed Wild | 34c | 563.11$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.09 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Red Wings | 67c | 305.42$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Red Wings | 58c | 283.88$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.96 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Wild | 32c | 235.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.32 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…bd4dbacked Wild | 34c | 229.17$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +9.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Red Wings | 77c | 208.83$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.83 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Red Wings | 67c | 200$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Wild | 31c | 191.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wild | 44c | 178.57$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b0…d8e4backed Red Wings | 56c | 173.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Red Wings | 70c | 168.06$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Red Wings | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Wild | 13c | 136.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Red Wings | 67c | 130.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Wild | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Wild | 38c | 99.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Red Wings | 66c | 93.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed74…345bbacked Red Wings | 55c | 89.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…b18cbacked Wild | 31c | 76.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Red Wings | 57c | 74.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Red Wings | 69c | 72.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Wild | 37c | 71.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Wild | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Wild | 28c | 60.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Wild | 33c | 58.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Wild | 40c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Red Wings | 70c | 50.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Red Wings | 71c | 48.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Red Wings | 72c | 45.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Wild | 29c | 41.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -12.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Wild | 27c | 41.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Wild | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Wild | 34c | 39.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Red Wings | 66c | 38.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Red Wings | 69c | 33.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Wild | 39c | 32.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Red Wings | 70c | 31.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Red Wings | 69c | 29.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Wild | 45c | 29.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Red Wings | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Red Wings | 70c | 22.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Red Wings | 66c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Red Wings | 74c | 17.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Wild won
- Spread: Wild (-2.5)Red Wings won
- Wild vs. Red WingsWild won
- Wild vs. Red Wings: O/U 4.5Over won
- Wild vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Wild vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Over won
- Wild vs. Red Wings: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.