NFL · resolved market
Will the Chiefs and Falcons combine for 47 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20fa07e411421cedb868e672223b3542724e2a63edbb97ddc9a96a9955f84dfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,035
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,035 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Under | 49c | 4,256$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 51c | 3,216$1,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cd…238dbacked Under | 46c | 1,430$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.98 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Over | 50c | 950$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Over | 49c | 900$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Over | 5c | 699.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Over | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 49c | 468.63$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.63 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Under | 52c | 400$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.85 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…97a0backed Over | 50c | 399.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Over | 48c | 204.62$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.22 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…b1cfbacked Under | 46c | 135.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Over | 49c | 99.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda67…b950backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chiefs and Falcons combine for 47 or more points?this page
- Will the Chiefs beat the Falcons by 4 or more points?Chiefs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.