NFL · resolved market
Will the Chiefs beat the Falcons by 4 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x330ed1976dad221fe349f96e24f89ff39536c82ef66497feedd8d954af0f30d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chiefsof Chiefs, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Falcons | 52c | 2,051$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.92 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Chiefs | 48c | 1,040$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Chiefs | 59c | 965$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.8 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…2081backed Chiefs | 48c | 906.91$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.97 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…84acbacked Falcons | 53c | 799.99$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Falcons | 31c | 531.84$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.92 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Falcons | 52c | 521.09$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.97 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Chiefs | 47c | 450$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Falcons | 53c | 358.51$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.01 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Chiefs | 48c | 354.2$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.2 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Falcons | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Chiefs | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Falcons | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9917…f431backed Chiefs | 50c | 110.86$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4b…d83abacked Chiefs | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 33cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Chiefs | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Chiefs | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Chiefs | 35c | 84.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Falcons | 51c | 79.59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9b…40b8backed Chiefs | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed Chiefs | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3f…8b64backed Chiefs | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Chiefs | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c06…6630backed Chiefs | 58c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chiefs beat the Falcons by 4 or more points?this page
- Will the Chiefs and Falcons combine for 47 or more points?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.