Tennis · resolved market
HSBC Championships: Alcaraz vs. Munar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2119fb805aec98324f798f7e28b3d090b8aefdc266baf4f9c2c4ee2e3bde7943
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Munar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Alcaraz | 78c | 7,681$6,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.48 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f43…fab3backed Munar | 3c | 4,599$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Munar | 23c | 4,056$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.13 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Munar | 59c | 3,973$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,355.71 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Munar | 5c | 3,112$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.85 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Munar | 3c | 3,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Munar | 29c | 1,714$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Munar | 3c | 1,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Alcaraz | 43c | 1,265$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.64 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Munar | 6c | 1,192$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.14 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Munar | 57c | 1,056$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.95 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Munar | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Munar | 5c | 999.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Munar | 23c | 951.18$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Munar | 3c | 940$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Alcaraz | 35c | 777$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.49 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Munar | 7c | 520$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Munar | 19c | 489$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…19e8backed Munar | 25c | 402.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Munar | 11c | 355.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Munar | 69c | 333$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.77 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d6…0062backed Munar | 46c | 259.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e3…30b5backed Alcaraz | 40c | 251.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Alcaraz | 58c | 234.14$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Alcaraz | 67c | 138.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed Munar | 51c | 132$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Alcaraz | 64c | 70.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Munar | 28c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 267 | 46.1%123 W · 144 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.