Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sinner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x212d071cd520521d247a6fe2b6dbcb9ef9daa69cd8b636540e786d59138c9a73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Shelton, Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Shelton | 19c | 1,020$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.58 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Sinner | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sinner | 77c | 627.9$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.79 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Shelton | 19c | 587.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Shelton | 15c | 521.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked Shelton | 20c | 504.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.94 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Shelton | 19c | 469.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shelton | 23c | 443$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.89 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Shelton | 20c | 320.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sinner | 77c | 318.32$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.8 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…6e09backed Shelton | 22c | 287$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 489 | 41.1%201 W · 288 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Shelton | 23c | 257.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 86 | 19.8%17 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Shelton | 20c | 138.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 314 | 34.4%108 W · 206 L | -25.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0417…9248backed Shelton | 20c | 129.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c4…d6a9backed Sinner | 77c | 128.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c54…da75backed Sinner | 76c | 122.25$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Shelton | 23c | 108.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 520 | 37.7%196 W · 324 L | -30.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Shelton | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 119 | 19.3%23 W · 96 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0575…66f3backed Shelton | 25c | 74.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x621c…1192backed Sinner | 78c | 63.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 25cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed Sinner | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 144 | 75%108 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e2…89a5backed Sinner | 77c | 34.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9218backed Sinner | 80c | 25.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Shelton vs Sinnerthis page
- Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Jannik SinnerSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5)Sinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Shelton (+2.5)Sinner won
- Shelton vs. Sinner: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Shelton vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Shelton vs. Sinner: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Shelton vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.