South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x213f03e303d5124ad0ea5c32473b1d75c2c9bb061a996b8294425644f3102d79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 39c | 5,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed No | 61c | 4,940$3,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.46 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 27c | 2,292$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.53 | 308 | 41.2%127 W · 181 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,967$1,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.46 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 28c | 1,132$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.2 | 80 | 26.3%21 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 62c | 1,044$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.01 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24e…080dbacked No | 66c | 989.58$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.46 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +37%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 16c | 899.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x573c…c365backed Yes | 37c | 716.22$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 30c | 666.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…f6b7backed Yes | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 515.88$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf343…fba6backed Yes | 30c | 433.87$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 38c | 396.61$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.71 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 13c | 392.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 79c | 378.33$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 3c | 362.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…4aeebacked No | 62c | 358$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.04 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed No | 63c | 298.38$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 62c | 276.89$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.2 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 22c | 271.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 402 | 42%169 W · 233 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 27c | 266.96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.94 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75c…86d0backed Yes | 11c | 215.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 37c | 212.55$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 204.63$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd5…8afbbacked Yes | 15c | 199.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 165.43$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…94e9backed No | 63c | 152.14$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.37 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…814dbacked No | 63c | 143$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4f…e283backed Yes | 19c | 118.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ac…5442backed Yes | 31c | 114.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +49%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6baf…e76bbacked Yes | 38c | 103.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 36c | 99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5e…de1dbacked Yes | 38c | 97.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…2391backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f14…c845backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 77c | 71.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 63c | 69.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c4cabacked Yes | 26c | 58.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 27c | 54.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98bc…a1dabacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 38c | 50.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 675 | 48%324 W · 351 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…9ac3backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27f9…93f6backed Yes | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…1b45backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7ae0backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 78c | 39.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 65c | 38.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf30…aa58backed Yes | 30c | 35.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 37c | 34.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c6…e609backed No | 63c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…af80backed No | 63c | 31.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…73b4backed Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Yes | 37c | 27.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 99 | 36.4%36 W · 63 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa288…401cbacked No | 75c | 24.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked No | 64c | 23.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed No | 66c | 19.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 76c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 60c | 17.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1282…97f1backed No | 66c | 17.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53e…1aa3backed No | 62c | 17.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 75c | 16.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd944…07d5backed No | 74c | 15.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed No | 67c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA River Plate win on 2026-03-02?this page
- Will CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. CA River Plate end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-03-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.