NHL · resolved market
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2149e7d7d8bf7318b736c8e870eaeda70d0a74cd8fa22d2ca407c13b8f08ca90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Krakenof Wild, Kraken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Wild | 39c | 11,681$4,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,555.59 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kraken | 61c | 10,000$6,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,900 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Kraken | 61c | 1,381$842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.59 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b7…dbdabacked Kraken | 68c | 709.04$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kraken | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Wild | 55c | 253.75$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.56 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Wild | 16c | 141.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kraken | 61c | 139$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Wild | 37c | 132.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 336 | 52.1%175 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Wild | 34c | 129$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Wild | 37c | 127.06$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Wild | 39c | 99.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Kraken | 62c | 92.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.34 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Kraken | 63c | 71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Kraken | 62c | 71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kraken | 49c | 61.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Kraken | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Kraken | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Wild | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Wild | 38c | 36.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Wild | 39c | 33.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Kraken | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kraken | 44c | 30.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked Wild | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…0c7ebacked Wild | 59c | 29.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc776…2915backed Kraken | 43c | 29.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf47…4d00backed Wild | 39c | 28.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)this page
- Wild vs. KrakenWild won
- Wild vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5Under won
- Wild vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.