NHL · resolved market
Wild vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27ed0c72ad3300ed005c9087aebbaa325d1880533c2724a149f6d5c85ce5f927
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Under | 45c | 3,637$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.36 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 46c | 2,533$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,367.82 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb973…ff16backed Over | 56c | 1,790$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.45 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 54c | 947.08$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.42 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 53c | 935.37$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.26 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 39c | 774$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.91 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 595.81$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.58 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 55c | 500.63$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.33 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 54c | 485.57$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.21 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 55c | 460$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cb…7b9bbacked Under | 73c | 372$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 55c | 330.15$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.58 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 54c | 180.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…8a3ebacked Over | 57c | 175.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 55c | 163.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Under | 10c | 153.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.96 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | +14.5wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 26c | 149.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 51c | 107$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4977…8fd6backed Over | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 177 | 54.2%96 W · 81 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 46c | 79.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over | 38c | 77.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 46c | 60.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 54c | 48.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 44c | 40.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…749abacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa5…9cf3backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 56c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 55c | 18.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wild vs. Kraken: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Kraken won
- Wild vs. KrakenWild won
- Wild vs. Kraken: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.