TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Astros vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astrosof Astros, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$838,896
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$839,193

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $838,896 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 433 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Astros48c686,410$329,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357,079.5938043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Orioles52c540,402$281,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281,008.931,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Orioles52c67,304$34,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,998.0835952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Orioles52c48,000$24,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,9607147.9%34 W · 37 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Orioles52c30,000$15,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,60055053.6%295 W · 255 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Astros48c24,208$11,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,588.0848254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Astros69c16,208$11,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,955.4133845.9%155 W · 183 L-15.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Astros48c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.9911150.5%56 W · 55 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce13…a213backed Astros47c10,333$4,857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,476.491855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb31…cd36backed Orioles53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,3003135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-34.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Orioles53c8,156$4,323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,322.7226949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Orioles52c8,000$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,16044456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Orioles52c7,608$3,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,966.7763152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Orioles52c6,710$3,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,489.225453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Orioles53c6,167$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.432,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Orioles17c5,916$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.282,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Orioles53c5,660$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00019649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed32…20d6backed Astros47c5,000$2,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6406538.5%25 W · 40 L-6.7wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles52c4,595$2,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,376.8998149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Orioles51c4,553$2,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,327.811,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed Orioles57c3,598$2,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,049.0423248.3%112 W · 120 L-13.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Orioles53c3,462$1,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,832.67450%37 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Orioles21c3,138$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.589,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ad…208ebacked Astros48c2,812$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.4121740.1%87 W · 130 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde8c…6307backed Astros48c2,708$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.375834.5%20 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Orioles11c2,290$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.5854345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1e0…8913backed Orioles52c2,048$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0657758.4%45 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf1…c324backed Orioles52c2,038$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Astros46c1,678$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.1353150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb61f…9958backed Orioles7c1,668$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4427213.6%37 W · 235 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Orioles20c1,338$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.2221747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a1e…2e41backed Astros49c1,229$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.573151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a49…b41bbacked Astros50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6007100%7 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d10…daebbacked Astros48c1,156$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.12728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-33.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa687…23e2backed Orioles52c1,152$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.04742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9df4…5161backed Orioles52c1,148$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.96944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d3…20e3backed Astros48c1,144$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.88650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Orioles29c1,097$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.351,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c3c…5c56backed Orioles51c1,025$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5252934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74c4…4493backed Astros66c943$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.2517850%89 W · 89 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Astros47c899.98$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.9983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Astros48c750$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39030151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…22c9backed Orioles50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacad…9470backed Orioles50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-60.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Orioles53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Astros48c500.06$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.0370946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Astros49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2551,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Astros47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26530850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Astros47c492.73$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.1551347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Orioles51c450$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.565549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Astros49c440.82$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.8274356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76cc…5e4ebacked Orioles51c414.33$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.311952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Orioles33c411.12$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.671,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Astros49c409.96$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.9688549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Astros48c402.01$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.2285047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Astros47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2121,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed Astros50c396.08$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.0811051.8%57 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Orioles52c384$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.681,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Orioles53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20025751.8%133 W · 124 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Astros66c304.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.3539160.4%236 W · 155 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9375…1dbdbacked Astros48c304.17$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.1711257.1%64 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Astros48c302$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.0431347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x248c…d914backed Orioles50c293.01$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.5124253.7%130 W · 112 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…abf4backed Astros65c281.54$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.54560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Astros48c270$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.434051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d4…e199backed Astros49c214.86$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.864544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Orioles20c209.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.064,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Astros48c208.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.272,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Astros49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.082,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb5…da2cbacked Astros49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0812355.3%68 W · 55 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Astros49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,38855.1%765 W · 623 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4779…211fbacked Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005651.8%29 W · 27 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b5a…d1bbbacked Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005250%26 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec14…afbbbacked Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008051.3%41 W · 39 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2019…a6a9backed Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7620…b9eabacked Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005742.1%24 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3236…8f9ebacked Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007757.1%44 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fd6…966cbacked Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007346.6%34 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c61…a273backed Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007546.7%35 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc94…72debacked Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005156.9%29 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67b8…729cbacked Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1007960.8%48 W · 31 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc81…40c9backed Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c37…a9efbacked Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005255.8%29 W · 23 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x806e…2d21backed Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005330.2%16 W · 37 L-11.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-41.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x1ba6…8340backed Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007647.4%36 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b71…fda7backed Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005339.6%21 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-19.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x244d…b7ccbacked Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004942.9%21 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c32…3b86backed Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007251.4%37 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb290…27c5backed Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7205…c850backed Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005358.5%31 W · 22 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+19.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0138…cdf1backed Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005343.4%23 W · 30 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28fe…620bbacked Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008353%44 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb523…0d72backed Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005354.7%29 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb340…6b02backed Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ef2…220bbacked Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005339.6%21 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46f5…31d4backed Orioles50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc213…f12bbacked Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005250%26 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d18…f551backed Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x069c…ed7bbacked Astros50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005046%23 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.