Mls · resolved market
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21a151c70cc511ec370ccfaba4e4b3de7d35602e38992fcbf280934426a5ffa7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 7c | 17,615$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.98 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 30c | 7,500$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,248.59 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 70c | 6,268$4,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.28 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 4c | 1,878$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 31c | 622$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.82 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 31c | 615.82$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 12c | 487$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 10c | 467.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 24c | 418.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 10c | 391.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 6c | 384.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 11c | 332.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Yes | 11c | 320$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 32c | 273$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…494fbacked Yes | 9c | 230.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 230$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 69c | 221.29$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…4f7cbacked Yes | 11c | 210.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 190.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 29c | 146.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7937…a98bbacked Yes | 11c | 134.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked Yes | 11c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 9c | 128.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…bd60backed Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 30c | 60.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed No | 69c | 54.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 31c | 42.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed No | 76c | 29.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will Charlotte FC vs. Columbus Crew end in a draw?No won
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.