South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21b9f98c30e9719849e703fab339408113badc271f981e749ad3f4fc8f8e4606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 37c | 3,034$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.31 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 41c | 1,977$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.7 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 63c | 1,125$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.75 | 1,945 | 51.3%998 W · 947 L | +40.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c6…502cbacked Over | 64c | 886.2$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.45 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 30c | 700$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.02 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 661.35$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.01 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 63c | 566.47$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.87 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 533.06$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.24 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 27c | 444.97$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.74 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 63c | 404.71$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.68 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 79c | 363.26$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.19 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Under | 32c | 360.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.93 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 62c | 339.74$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.64 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 63c | 302.66$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.05 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…a0fdbacked Under | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 36c | 248.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.24 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…2e93backed Over | 30c | 230.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Over | 63c | 192.76$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 63c | 175$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 65c | 156.48$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 62c | 156$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 788 | 56.3%444 W · 344 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbebb…a1d5backed Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33c0…4c07backed Under | 29c | 123.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Under | 38c | 118.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.42 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…9507backed Over | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 33c | 76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,296 | 43%557 W · 739 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8221…2217backed Over | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 63c | 67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e35…3655backed Over | 49c | 60.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…d4e2backed Over | 79c | 55.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa1…0193backed Over | 58c | 52.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 62c | 52.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 64c | 49.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 724 | 50.6%366 W · 358 L | -24.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 76c | 46.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 2,519 | 39%982 W · 1,537 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…2e5bbacked Over | 66c | 43.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Over | 63c | 38.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 63c | 34.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 79c | 32.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 46c | 32.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 69c | 30.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…5da3backed Under | 48c | 25.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Over | 46c | 22.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…08a2backed Over | 65c | 18.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 66cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefa2…2b5dbacked Over | 71c | 18.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 65c | 18.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5this page
- CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Lanús vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Lanús (-1.5)Mirassol FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.