NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21be3995825d4b4939e1880dc3ae702304c10d82648eae413fdabfeba4ab2b6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 56c | 6,060$3,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,392.84 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 3,639$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.26 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 45c | 3,077$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.37 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 55c | 2,087$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.8 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…e780backed Under | 43c | 1,772$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,520$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.09 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 58c | 1,024$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.64 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 57c | 464.91$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 45c | 444$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 5c | 426.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +7.1wins | +0.27per pick | 11cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 48c | 260$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.2 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Over | 56c | 254.5$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.52 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe38…f858backed Over | 47c | 248.5$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 42c | 245.24$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 203 | 45.3%92 W · 111 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 43c | 235$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.95 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc9…9379backed Over | 57c | 220.43$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 52c | 210$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.2 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 192.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 54c | 135.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…3a3fbacked Over | 45c | 110.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb17…94e8backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 55c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked Under | 42c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 160 | 48.1%77 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed Under | 42c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63e1…802abacked Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd5…30f0backed Over | 58c | 27.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…f988backed Under | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 55c | 23.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Capitals vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Red Wings won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.