NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeb70a7e5cac7b9dca18e78b472081367e5b84fd9b120fa391cda7836672bf67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,112
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 45c | 9,962$4,436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,435.76 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…e780backed Under | 56c | 9,830$5,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,316.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 42c | 5,082$2,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,139.39 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 45c | 5,075$2,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,283.78 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Over | 46c | 2,222$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.12 | 752 | 51.7%389 W · 363 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 55c | 1,901$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.29 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 54c | 1,899$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.52 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 46c | 1,630$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08cd…ea8bbacked Under | 58c | 1,466$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 55c | 1,197$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.46 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 41c | 623.47$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.62 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 54c | 557$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.22 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce6…79eebacked Under | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…52bcbacked Under | 56c | 517.86$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d8…b669backed Under | 55c | 516.36$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Under | 59c | 508$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 54c | 485$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.1 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 57c | 444$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Under | 59c | 170.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 43c | 168.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9917…12f4backed Under | 58c | 149$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 44cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 54c | 142.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.16 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 55c | 99.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…7c2abacked Under | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 54c | 71.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 44c | 68.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…600dbacked Over | 47c | 66.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked Under | 64c | 59.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…a5acbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 36c | 45.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…bdddbacked Over | 46c | 44.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…75adbacked Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. Red WingsRed Wings won
- Capitals vs. Red Wings: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Red Wings won
- Spread: Red Wings (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.