Australian A League · resolved market
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-10-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21bed20d85e87128ba93e619002026a101b8d2625df86b00cf48c549fe8e828c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 57c | 36,960$20,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,966.54 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 42c | 29,867$12,544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,322.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Yes | 64c | 3,000$1,930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed No | 42c | 2,407$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Yes | 43c | 2,115$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…1e17backed Yes | 66c | 1,790$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 45c | 1,689$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.68 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 56c | 1,568$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.03 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8245…4f87backed Yes | 65c | 1,238$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 879.98$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.39 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 43c | 659.34$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.74 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 43c | 456.58$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.25 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 65c | 398.6$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3c…4325backed Yes | 65c | 380$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 58c | 333.99$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.72 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 43c | 244.19$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b9…c68cbacked Yes | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 25c | 146.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.68 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Yes | 43c | 125$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 50c | 118.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.37 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…f5ddbacked Yes | 66c | 106.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde41…4878backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a8…e268backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed No | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 66c | 63.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21a4…4a8fbacked Yes | 66c | 53.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes | 43c | 37.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…3c19backed Yes | 42c | 36.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…0b62backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 47c | 29.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked No | 52c | 29.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…aeb5backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba7…8d2ebacked Yes | 65c | 22.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2025-10-31?this page
- Will Perth Glory FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Perth Glory FC win on 2025-10-31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.