UFC · resolved market
UFC 318: Will Holloway win by decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21e818a448b7febc3308b162bc5cdafceb6c0efa480f89dbfb103926071dca99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 36c | 1,364$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.61 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 64c | 1,154$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.53 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 3c | 670$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 64c | 335.78$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.1 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c1…4b56backed Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 32c | 130.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.42 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…2b47backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…858cbacked Yes | 35c | 95.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 70c | 89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 63c | 52.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe28a…ae4fbacked Yes | 30c | 50.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8035…c57fbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4921…6f6cbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…a29fbacked Yes | 37c | 35.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ae…00eabacked Yes | 37c | 32.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Yes | 49c | 20.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 58c | 18.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 318: Will Holloway win by decision?this page
- UFC 318: Will Holloway win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 318: Will Holloway win by submission?No won
- UFC 318: Will Poirier win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 318: Will Poirier win by decision?No won
- UFC 318: Will Poirier win by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.