UFC · resolved market
UFC 318: Will Poirier win by decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96732336dddd75b461e6ddfb4d2d27bc4dc5b6de9c7f5e3ecd3a3a2d7ba79135
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 26c | 3,854$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked No | 74c | 3,735$2,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 62cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x921a…ee8dbacked Yes | 24c | 411.13$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 329.07$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.85 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 75c | 319.07$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 76c | 307.06$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 76c | 299.99$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c1…8d10backed Yes | 26c | 191.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 20c | 140.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05bb…7566backed Yes | 23c | 128.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…98c3backed Yes | 24c | 104.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bc…ec72backed Yes | 26c | 99.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 158 | 48.1%76 W · 82 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…5c34backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfae6…c3a8backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked No | 80c | 37.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 318: Will Poirier win by decision?this page
- UFC 318: Will Holloway win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 318: Will Holloway win by decision?Yes won
- UFC 318: Will Holloway win by submission?No won
- UFC 318: Will Poirier win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 318: Will Poirier win by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.