UFC · resolved market
UFC 318: Will Holloway win by KO/TKO/DQ?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc662971037e1e9bd07ca8558484854d42ecd3032c3a1a35b4e573a5b2a119063
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 76c | 899.96$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…976ebacked Yes | 23c | 427.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…3f35backed Yes | 25c | 392.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 76c | 315.38$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 78c | 299.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe280…ed39backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 19c | 145.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x536a…7de2backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd9…75b6backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…67b1backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 79c | 78.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 72c | 77.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…efd2backed Yes | 25c | 62.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…810cbacked Yes | 22c | 57.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…defdbacked Yes | 20c | 55.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Yes | 46c | 54.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc85…c8c3backed Yes | 23c | 43.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 72c | 19.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 318: Will Holloway win by KO/TKO/DQ?this page
- UFC 318: Will Holloway win by decision?Yes won
- UFC 318: Will Holloway win by submission?No won
- UFC 318: Will Poirier win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC 318: Will Poirier win by decision?No won
- UFC 318: Will Poirier win by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.