Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21e869d4c5a3ec34e5c6844da626d8d848e836f9964c6d081aab610f4396b7f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,294
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,294 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 80c | 309.69$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 6c | 283.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 26c | 203.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 18c | 180.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 10c | 153.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 16c | 150.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 144.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 79c | 119.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 70c | 102.78$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 73c | 91.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 89.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 65c | 77.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 31c | 75.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3127…6f1bbacked Yes | 34c | 75.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 67c | 73.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 22c | 71.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 79c | 67.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 67.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 64.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 31c | 61.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 19c | 59.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 59.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 35c | 58.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 55.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 66c | 49.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 69c | 46.81$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 67c | 44.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9643…1874backed Yes | 34c | 43.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 71c | 42.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 72c | 40.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 74c | 40.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 38.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 37.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 67c | 37.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed No | 66c | 30.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 30.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 70c | 28.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 27.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 70c | 23.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 71c | 22.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…c4a3backed No | 74c | 21.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 74c | 19.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 18.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…a787backed No | 69c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 77c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 15.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.