Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bd698feb614664986d0e704c5ce6fec743852fbaac0cde241667ffc6fe173bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 70c | 251.2$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 22c | 240.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.05 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 53c | 225.16$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 54c | 183.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 55c | 181.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.97 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 160.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 146.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…4d96backed No | 33c | 140.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 136.13$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 10c | 127.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 30c | 124$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 113.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 31c | 102.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 97.16$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 28c | 77.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 49c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 65c | 76.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 43c | 75.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 45c | 65.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 63.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 44c | 62.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 48c | 60.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…3432backed No | 34c | 58.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 21c | 55.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 53.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 25c | 52.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 41c | 48.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 53c | 47.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 47c | 45.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 44.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 44.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 42c | 40.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed Yes | 57c | 37.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 39c | 35.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 76c | 32.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 75c | 32.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 45c | 32.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 31.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa94d…cdffbacked Yes | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 47c | 27.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe43a…61cbbacked Yes | 68c | 27.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 26.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…2004backed Yes | 68c | 25.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…c4a3backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc857…7c22backed No | 53c | 24.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5d…c45abacked Yes | 57c | 24.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 57c | 23.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 55c | 22.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05bc…008abacked No | 52c | 21.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 49c | 20.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 58c | 20.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 69c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823a…61abbacked No | 70c | 16.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.