Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21fdc2e61a557a6af0388d879475e36573ab37b946eb17d934b348682d4845c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 26c | 578.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.06 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 50c | 474.63$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 59c | 341.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.42 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 47c | 337.37$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.77 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 77c | 269.67$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.59 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…5a65backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 32c | 215.98$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.93 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 69c | 205.73$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.51 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed Yes | 62c | 178.24$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 39c | 171.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.86 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 73c | 165.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.28 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 77c | 149.58$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 64c | 146.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.76 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 130.98$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 47c | 130.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 79c | 126.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 28c | 123.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.41 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 32c | 112.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 64c | 109.7$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 92.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 36c | 80.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 28c | 76.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 74.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 32c | 73.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed Yes | 68c | 72.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 29c | 67.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 38c | 66.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 53c | 64.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 60c | 55.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 76c | 49.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 31c | 49.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 46.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 69c | 37.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 58c | 34.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 59c | 34.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e1…77debacked Yes | 67c | 34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 62c | 33.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Yes | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 50 | 82%41 W · 9 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 65cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed Yes | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedd5…3235backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed Yes | 55c | 24.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 23.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 63c | 22.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…3347backed Yes | 73c | 22.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 65c | 21.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…e85cbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 72c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…8a92backed Yes | 68c | 17.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed Yes | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 78c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf613…2a52backed Yes | 75c | 14.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.